The latest data released by the UK government paints a complex picture of the housing market for the period of July to September 2023. As previously noted, mortgage and landlord possession actions have witnessed a significant uptick. This increase in possession actions across the UK, particularly in London, signals underlying shifts in the housing market dynamics​​.
To contextualize these government statistics, it's crucial to consider the broader economic landscape. According to CBRE's UK Real Estate Market Outlook for 2023, the year began under challenging economic conditions, marked by high inflation and rising interest rates, which put a strain on growth and the property market. Despite the expectation of a moderate recession, recovery signs are anticipated towards the year's end. The report also highlights a "flight to quality" in real estate, where properties not aligned with environmental goals are becoming increasingly marginalised​​.
Savills UK, in their September 2023 Housing Market Update, provides further insights. They report a -0.8% drop in house prices in August, with a significant annual fall of -5.3%. This decrease is attributed to higher mortgage interest rates impacting buyer budgets and a general economic uncertainty. The report also notes regional variations in price falls, with certain areas in London experiencing the largest decreases. Despite this, the rental market has seen a different trajectory, with an accelerated annual growth of 10.5% in July, highlighting the increasing demand for rental properties across the UK​​.
These insights from various sources, including the UK government, CBRE, and Savills, underscore the multifaceted nature of the current UK housing market. The increase in possession claims and orders, alongside fluctuating house prices and rental market growth, points to a period of adjustment and resilience in the face of economic uncertainties.
"Mortgage and landlord possession statistics: July to September 2023" - UK Government
"UK Real Estate Market Outlook 2023" - CBRE UK
"UK Housing Market Update - September 2023" - Savills UK